EconWatch.com > The Bonddad Blog: When will the Economy start to add Jobs? (II ...
[The Bonddad Blog] I have prepared a graph that confirms that indeed the level of 53 or above strongly correlates with the economy adding jobs Below that number the economy tends to shed jobs. In the graph, below, the low point for payrolls in each of the last 3 recessions (shown in red, green, and orange, respectively) is normed to 100.
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[ForexCake.com] When will the Economy start to add Jobs? (II.) More on the ISM ...: In the graph, below, the low point for payrolls in each of .The ISM index is normed so that it crosses the 100 threshold at a reading of 53: Note that the 53 level is the point where jobs began to be added in the very strong recovery after 1982, as well as during the week recoveries of 1992 and 2002.
[Saskatoon Real Estate Resource Centre] Saskatoon real estate: Week in review (July 6-10 2009): Norm, I’d never been able to find anything to confirm they’d in fact been given the extension (although I assume that was the case). Just seems strange to find the press conveniently absent, especially in lieu of the recent advertising blitz.
[Steve Urquhart] Steve Urquhart: Global Warming and Solar Activity: You make the argument in your original post “the ramp up in temperatures since the 1950s correlates with a string of the most active solar cycles in recorded history” and ask “is that correlation relevant?” You cant argue it is relevant let alone a correlation using a graph that doesnt show any temperature record and stops showing solar activity just before it reaches a 50 year low. That said, you did acknowledge you had left out the incredibly important temperature information when making your correlation claim, and I am sorry I overlooked that.
[Schools for Tomorrow - Education News Colorado - Colorado's Comprehensive Site for Education News] Why measuring growth matters « Schools for Tomorrow - Education ...: particularly as the growth scores are clustered around a median of 50%, there were 11 school districts with growth scores between 50 and 55. But look at the difference in FRL numbers even at the similar growth scores: FRL percentages vary from below 10% to over 65%.
[Greater Fool - The Troubled Future of Real Estate] History repeats? ” Greater Fool - The Troubled Future of Real Estate: I dont think so, unless these people crash and require a tax bailout. Many of these business sites and the “news” are a bunch of idiots.
[The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time] Productivity - Wage Gap Grows | The Economic Populist: would still be way down in the tail and it's value minimized, regardless of it being more closely to the "norm" in a Gaussian distribution. Anywho, I still say the thing that freaks me out more is the correlation coefficient being .
[Ask Sam] The Age Blogs: Ask Sam: As to the recent Forbes article stating 2 of the Top 5 happiest cities being Sydney (2nd) and Melbourne (5th) perhaps there is a correlation to the recent increase in marriage rates. Probably not that simple but I prefer this theory over MGTOW's pessimism.
[Peter Levine] Peter Levine: political participation and economic success: The World Values survey asks people whether they take "local community action on issues like poverty, employment, housing, racial equality." Answers to that question did not correlate at all with socio-economic development. Therefore, I dropped that indicator from the graph.
[Niche Modeling] Niche Modeling » Replicating McLean: In particular, I couldn't see why they would claim a correlation for RATPAC but graph it for MSU as in Fig 7. It may have something to do with Lucia's observation that the constant term in their regressions does imply a considerable trend in RATPAC.
[The Rates Blog] Opinion: A raving lesson for NZ's economic forecasters - Blogging ...: The right chart shows the average, maximum and minimum forecasts for real consumer spending growth based on the survey of 10 forecasters conducted by NZIER in March. None of these forecasters predict that consumer spending growth will recover to even the average annual rate of 3.6% experienced over the last 10 years, while based on the Treasury forecasts we wont get close to this average even by 2012/13.
[P2P Foundation] P2P Foundation » Blog Archive » Wim Nusselder on Quarternary Economics: It’s fourth section contains an interesting account of economic development, towards a ‘quarternary economics’. I believe it fits in with P2P theory, which is also about value-based production (in the sense of associating with people with similar values, in order to create new types of use value).
[The Big Picture] The Elements of Deflation | The Big Picture: I actually thought (and still can’t rule out) the housing boom was an idea hatched by Greenspan to bail out the boomers after the internet bubble burst. My theory was that he knew they got killed in the stock market and the only way to save them financially was to give them back the money in the form of real estate appreciation.
[Wbrussee's Weblog] August 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT « Wbrussee's Weblog: As you have stated, since October 2007, excluding the larger drop in value and longer time span of the initial drop in equities markets, the recent market trends are very similar to those of the Great Depression. So if our current crisis causes the equity markets to retrace (with a high correlation) what happened to the INDX during the Great Depression we could cautiously conclude that any event that occurred during the Great Depression as well as the current crisis is a key variable and any event that was different between the Great Depression as well as the current crisis is not a variable that will likely play a role in future crisis of this scale.
[The Rates Blog] Opinion: Why the golden oldies are wrong - Blogging On Interest ...: 2.”We at interest.co.nz forecast back in February that median house prices were likely to fall 30% over the next couple of years from their November 2007 peaks. We think it will take until 2018 before the median house price gets back above the NZ$352,000 peak it reached in November 2007.
[Economix] Savings Rates Rising Toward Mediocrity - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com: The main thing I notice in that graph is that household saving was highest while interest rates and inflation was very high in the 70’s as as inflation and interest rates fell during the late 90’s and 2000’s household savings fell off dramatically. I don’t know which is the cause and which the effect or if there’s even a causal relationship, but it seems like it’d be interesting to look into.
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